Weekly Economic Update

WILL THE EASING END SOONER, OR LATER?

Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke lifted stocks by noting that the U.S. economy needed “highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future,” adding that the current 7.6% jobless rate “overstates the health of the labor market.” Remarks like these didn’t exactly suggest the Fed would scale back its asset purchases soon. The June Fed policy meeting minutes showed 11 of 12 Fed officials agreeing to sustain the central bank’s bond-buying campaign, with “about half” of these 11 envisioning QE3 wrapping up late this year. On Friday, Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser emerged from that camp, calling for a “gradual and predictable” end to the program before 2014.1,2,3

HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT DECLINES A BIT

The initial July consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan dipped mildly to 83.9. June’s final reading was 84.1, and economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise to 85.0.4

PRODUCER PRICES LEAP 0.8%

Minus food and energy prices, wholesale inflation wasn’t so pronounced in June. The core PPI rose just 0.2% last month. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had projected an overall PPI gain of 0.3%.4,5

WALL STREET GETS A BERNANKE BOUNCE

Dovish comments from the Fed chairman helped the S&P 500 to a new record close of 1,680.19 Friday. On the week, the S&P gained 2.96%. The NASDAQ rose 3.47% for the week to settle at 3,600.08 Friday. The Dow gained 2.17% last week and closed Friday at a fresh all-time peak of 15,464.30.4

THIS WEEK: Monday offers Q2 results from Citigroup, Census Bureau data on June retail sales and a Q2 GDP reading from China. The June CPI appears Tuesday, plus the latest NAHB housing market index, data on June industrial output and earnings from Goldman Sachs, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab, Yahoo and CSX. Wednesday, Ben Bernanke begins two days of testimony in the Senate, a new Fed Beige Book arrives, and American Express, Bank of America, Bank of NY Mellon, Novartis, Abbott Labs, Mattel, eBay, IBM, Intel and SanDisk report earnings. Thursday offers earnings reports from Capital One, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, United Health, Verizon, Nokia, Google, Microsoft, AMD and Chipotle, plus the latest initial claims figures and the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators. Friday, a G20 summit wraps up and Schlumberger, GE, Vodafone and Honeywell report Q2 results.

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 7/12/134,6,7,8

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Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/id/100877586 [7/10/13]

2 – cnbc.com/id/100757576 [7/12/13]

3 – blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2013/07/10/treasury-yields-creep-higher-amid-parsing-of-fed-minutes-bernanke-speech/ [7/10/13]

4 – cnbc.com/id/100882518 [7/12/13]

5 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/07/08-12 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F12%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F12%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F12%2F12&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=7%2F11%2F03&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=7%2F11%2F03&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=7%2F11%2F03&x=0&y=0 [7/12/13]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [7/12/13]

8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [7/12/13]

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